Market Analysis – Trump Officially Elected President of the United States, Igniting the Cryptocurrency Market
Yesterday was an incredibly crazy day; as votes were being counted in the U.S., cryptocurrencies began to rise. Ultimately, Trump successfully took office in the White House, and the Republican Party, led by Trump, also secured a majority in both the House and Senate, marking a comprehensive victory. BTC broke through its historical high of $73,777 around 4 AM today, reaching a peak of $76,400, setting a new historical record. This can be considered a historic moment and aligns with the expectations for Q4 market trends mentioned in previous weekly reports. The overall cryptocurrency market also experienced a long-awaited surge, sweeping away the gloom of last week's significant drop, with the BULL trading group achieving nearly 30% profit over the past seven days.
The two sectors that saw the largest gains yesterday were DeFi and dog-related meme coins. The former benefited mainly from Trump's policy proposals to loosen financial regulations, and many positive comments regarding DeFi were made at the Bitcoin conference. Trump's presidency undoubtedly unshackles DEFI in the U.S., with AAVE and UNI rising over 40% in a single day, alongside significant gains in ETH due to staking protocols, with Pendle and LDO also showing considerable increases.
Currently, in terms of operations, if you do not have too many holdings or spot positions, there is no need to rush. Spot positions can be gradually built. Recommended coins have been mentioned in previous weekly reports, but for investors looking to use contracts with leverage, it is relatively not advisable at this time. The market sentiment is very bullish, and in the short term, the market may face a correction. Opening leverage positions now to chase trades may not yield a good risk-reward ratio. The contract market will continuously wash out market chips, as seen yesterday when a significant surge directly liquidated $426 million in short positions across the network, marking the largest short liquidation in nearly six months. It is best to wait for the market to cool down slightly before entering.
The overall structure is in a bull market, still riding the honeymoon phase of Trump's election. Many coins appear to have significant gains, but the bear market over the past six months has already caused market values to drop by more than half, leaving a considerable distance from their peaks. Therefore, investors do not need to FOMO too much; the easiest time to lose money is actually in the current environment, which can lead investors to overlook potential risks. Additionally, the FOMC meeting, postponed due to the election, will be held on Friday, and although the market generally expects a 25bp cut, it may cause fluctuations in the market again. Recently, attention can be focused on ETH, which, aside from having a relatively low base, has also broken through resistance zones due to this wave of positive news, potentially leading the market into a season of altcoins.
Improved Regulatory Environment Boosts DeFi Concept Sector
Since Trump's victory, the cryptocurrency market seems to have entered the next phase of a bull market cycle, with almost all coins showing significant increases. Among them, the decentralized finance (DeFi) concept sector has seen particularly notable gains. According to data from Coingecko, the overall market cap of the DeFi sector has increased by about 17% in the past 24 hours. We believe the renewed attention on the DeFi sector is primarily influenced by the results of this election.
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Before the election, holding Ethereum and DeFi projects carried much greater risk than holding BTC, as most Democratic government actions targeted ETH or DeFi projects. However, Trump and the Republican Party have traditionally leaned towards supporting cryptocurrencies in terms of policy.
In addition to Trump's victory, the Republican Party also controls a majority of seats in both the House and Senate. According to statistics from standwithcrypto, there are 261 candidates in the House who support cryptocurrencies, while 17 senators-elect also support cryptocurrencies, making pro-crypto legislators a majority in both chambers.
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In other words, the potential risks of holding Ethereum and DeFi projects may have dissipated, replaced by a regulatory environment more conducive to innovation and the development of DeFi.
Ethena's Future Development is Worth Watching
Within the DeFi sector, we believe that Ethena, which we previously mentioned, is still worth paying attention to. Since we expressed our optimism for ENA in the September weekly report, it has achieved about a 60% increase. We still believe ENA deserves focus; in addition to the bull market benefiting users through higher interest rates on the Ethena protocol (increased bull market funding rates = higher rates offered by Ethena), market maker Wintermute recently proposed in Ethena's risk committee to allocate a portion of the protocol's income to ENA token stakers, which would add more value to the ENA token.
However, it is important to note that Wintermute also requested the foundation to disclose the structural framework of the Ethena protocol, particularly regarding the flow of protocol income and whether it is willing to introduce an income distribution mechanism for sENA. In simple terms, Wintermute is asking for an official explanation of whether the protocol's income flows to the developers at Ethena Labs or is 100% retained for the protocol (with a portion allocated to ENA stakers). The official response will lead to two entirely different outcomes.
If the official confirms that part of the income flows to shareholders and refuses to establish an income distribution mechanism for ENA, it may impact the price of ENA negatively; conversely, if the team confirms that all income is retained for the protocol and proposes a complete income distribution structure, it could provide further upward momentum for the ENA token.
The Next Big Surge Opportunity for Dogecoin
Aside from DeFi, Dogecoin (DOGE), which was frequently mentioned during this election due to Elon Musk, has also recently reached new highs. We believe that as the election campaign comes to an end, the upward momentum for Dogecoin may weaken.
However, with Trump's inauguration on January 20, 2025, and Elon Musk officially entering the Department of Government Efficiency (D.O.G.E) around the same time, Dogecoin has the opportunity to be pushed up again due to market attention.
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The returns for 'GTRadar – BULL', 'GTRadar – Balance', and 'GTRadar – Potential Public Chain OKX' over the past 7 days were +29.01%, +5.79%, and 2.85%, respectively, while the returns over the past 30 days were +17.39%, -5.43%, and -7.25%. Currently, 'GTRadar – BULL' holds a net long position of 90%, primarily in BTC and ETH. 'GTRadar – Balance' holds a net long position of about 50%, mainly in SOL and ETH. 'GTRadar – Potential Public Chain' holds a net long position of about 40%, mainly in SOL and ETH. Long-term returns for traders who frequently change their portfolios are often lower than those who consistently follow a single group. Do not easily end following a trade due to short-term pullbacks; from the curve chart, pullbacks can actually be a good time to start following trades, while entering and exiting frequently can significantly reduce returns.
Focus News
MicroStrategy Plans to Raise $42 Billion Over the Next Three Years to Purchase More Bitcoin
MicroStrategy, the publicly traded company holding the most Bitcoin globally, announced its third-quarter financial report last week, highlighting that its "BTC yield" has grown by 5.1%. Additionally, MicroStrategy unveiled its "21/21 Plan," aiming to raise $42 billion in funding over the next three years, with $21 billion to be raised through equity and another $21 billion through fixed-income securities. This plan aims to support further Bitcoin purchases as part of its financial reserve strategy.
Coinbase's Third Quarter Profits Decline, Announces $1 Billion Stock Buyback Plan
Coinbase announced on Wednesday during its third-quarter earnings report that its board has approved a $1 billion stock buyback plan. "In October 2024, our board authorized and approved a stock buyback plan allowing for the repurchase of up to $1 billion of outstanding Class A common stock, with no expiration date." Coinbase stated, "The timing and amount of any repurchases will depend on market conditions."
On-chain Detectives Gather to Investigate! Famous Influencer MrBeast Profits Tens of Millions of Dollars from Cutting Retail Investors
loock.io recently disclosed an investigation report targeting the well-known overseas YouTuber MrBeast, which involved on-chain analysts such as SomaXBT and Kasper Vandeloock. They compiled a series of evidence through on-chain tracking and past public information to establish a complete picture of MrBeast's cryptocurrency activities.
USDT Issuer Tether Releases Third Quarter Report: Achieves $2.5 Billion Profit, Holds 18th Largest Position in U.S. Treasury Bonds
Stablecoin USDT issuer Tether recently released its financial audit report for the third quarter of 2024. This audit was conducted by the globally recognized independent accounting firm BDO, showcasing Tether's financial strength and the asset status of its stablecoin issuance entity as of September 30, 2024.
U.S. SEC Issues Wells Notice to Immutable
The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) recently issued a Wells notice to the Ethereum gaming platform Immutable, warning that the company and its IMX token may soon face enforcement actions. An Immutable spokesperson stated that this notice was sent within the past month, and the SEC also sent a letter to Immutable's CEO James Ferguson and the Digital Worlds Foundation, which assisted in issuing the IMX token, accusing them of violating securities laws.
Trump-Supported World Liberty Financial Lowers Fundraising Target by 90%
According to regulatory documents from the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the cryptocurrency project World Liberty Financial, supported by former U.S. President Trump's family, has significantly lowered its fundraising target due to the WLFI token sales progress being far below expectations.
October Non-Farm Payrolls Fall Short of Expectations
Due to the impact of hurricanes and Boeing strikes, October's non-farm payrolls only increased by 12,000, far below the expected 106,000. The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%.
He Yi Clarifies Binance Listing Fee Rumors, Andre Cronje Reveals: Coinbase Charges More
Recently, FUD regarding Binance's Launchpad has spread widely in the community, stemming from claims by the CEO of Moonrock Capital that Binance required an unnamed potential project to provide 15% of its total token supply to be listed on the centralized exchange. In response, Binance co-founder He Yi denied this claim on social media and clarified that Binance does not charge new projects a percentage of tokens or a fixed amount for listing.
Mt. Gox Wallet Transfers 32,371 Bitcoins Worth $2.19 Billion
According to data monitored by the on-chain data analysis platform Spot On Chain, the wallet of the now-defunct cryptocurrency exchange Mt. Gox has recently seen continued fund transfers, moving 32,371 Bitcoins (BTC) to three new wallets on the morning of November 5, valued at approximately $2.19 billion.
TG Mini-Game Decline! Hamster Kombat Loses 259 Million Players, Token Price Crashes Over 70%
Once extremely popular, the "Tap to Earn" TG mini-game Hamster Kombat peaked at 300 million users in August but has now lost 259 million players. According to Protos, the current monthly active users of the game are only about 41 million, and its token has dropped 76% from a high of $0.009993 on September 26 to $0.002392.
F2Pool Co-Founder Withdraws 9,480 ETH from Binance and Stakes It
According to information shared by on-chain data analyst Yu Jin, F2Pool co-founder and Stakefish founder Chun Wang withdrew 9,480 ETH from Binance about an hour ago, totaling approximately $23.13 million, and subsequently staked 6,400 ETH through StakeFish.
Pro-Crypto Republican Candidate Trump Elected President of the United States
U.S. Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump announced his election victory over Democratic candidate Kamala Harris at the Palm Beach Convention Center in Florida, following predictions from Fox News. Cryptocurrencies like Bitcoin surged significantly in the wake of Trump's victory.
Wintermute Requests Ethena Foundation to Clarify Income Flow and Allocate Part of Income to sENA
Cryptocurrency market maker Wintermute today released a proposal in the risk committee of the decentralized finance protocol Ethena, requesting the foundation to disclose the structural framework of the Ethena protocol, particularly regarding the flow of protocol income, and proposed to allocate a portion of the protocol's income to ENA token stakers.
The above content does not constitute any financial investment advice, and all data comes from GT Radar's official announcements. Each user may experience slight differences due to varying entry and exit prices, and past performance does not guarantee future results!